Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
